Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Superdelegates, the horseshoe nail

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

The results after yesterday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries:

And here's where the delegate count was on February 12, the first day Obama substantially overtook Clinton in delegates:

I remember back in February how far-fetched it still seemed for Obama to win the nomination. His superdelegate count was still down by 78, a significant number. Since then, a change in the wind has moved things around because today, Clinton's superdelegate lead of 78 is now down to only eight. Not including Florida and Michigan, there are 795 superdelegates being tallied in the democratic primaries, meaning 277 superdelegates have remained undecided... and Obama is within only 189 delegates of winning the nomination.

On May 1st, longtime Clinton ally and Superdelegate John Andrew defected to Obama. As he switched flag colors, he loudly explained why:
At a news conference Thursday, Andrew said Clinton's support for a federal gas-tax holiday over the summer was symbolic of a poll-driven candidacy proposing something "politically expedient to give a quick pander to Hoosier voters," in contrast to what he called the "principled" campaign Obama has run. Link.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair became frustrated with Bill Clinton because he felt he could never get Clinton to commit to anything, and was relieved when George Bush was elected because when Bush said he would do something, he always followed through. So it seems there was a valid reason why Bill Clinton earned the term, "Slick Willy".

Can we really expect Hillary to be radically different than the man she married?

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