Oscar Picks & Predictions, 78th

As promised, I present my predictions for the 78th Academy Awards this year. The films I've already seen are struckthrough, the ones I think deserve to win have "(My pick)" next to them, and the ones I think actually will win have "(Likely to win)" next to them. (NB: as I see more films, I'll tweak this list, so keep checking back.) I also reserve the right to change my mind until the awards ceremony begins.

I haven't ever seen all of the films nominated in each category every year, but I do try very hard to at least see the all the films nominated for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Adapted Screeenlay, Most Original Screenplay, and Best Cinematography. Here, then, is a list of films I must-see March 5th, broken into two distinct groups:

Still in Theatres
Walk The Line
Memoirs Of A Geisha
The New World
Syriana

In DVD Limbo (not in theatres and not released on DVD until after the Awards... OMG, this is stupid!
Hustle & Flow
A History of Violence
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Transamerica
North Country
Match Point
The Squid And The Whale

With no further ado, here are my predictions:

Academy Of Motion Picture Arts And Sciences
78th Annual Academy Awards Nominations & Predictions

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash (My pick) (Likely to win)
Good Night, And Good Luck.
Munich

ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Brokeback Mountain (Likely to win)
Capote
Crash (My pick)
Good Night, And Good Luck.
Munich

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote (Likely to win)
Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain (My pick)
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line
David Strathairn - Good Night, And Good Luck.

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man (My pick)
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain (Likely to win)
William Hurt - A History Of Violence

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice (My pick) (Likely to win)
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line

PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - Junebug (My pick)
Catherine Keener - Capote
Frances Mcdormand - North Country (Likely to win)
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener (My pick)
A History Of Violence (Likely to win)
Munich

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Crash (My pick) (Likely to win)
Good Night, And Good Luck.
Match Point
The Squid And The Whale
Syriana

ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night, And Good Luck. (My pick) (Likely to win)
Memoirs Of A Geisha
The New World

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM OF THE YEAR
Howl's Moving Castle
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride
Wallace & Gromit In The Curse Of The Were-Rabbit (My pick) (Likely to win)

ACHIEVEMENT IN ART DIRECTION
Good Night, And Good Luck.
Harry Potter And The Goblet Of Fire
King Kong (My pick) (Likely to win)
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Pride & Prejudice

ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Charlie And The Chocolate Factory
Memoirs Of A Geisha (Likely to win)
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice (My pick)
Walk The Line

ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Cinderella Man (My pick)
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Munich (Likely to win)
Walk The Line

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR
Don't Tell
Joyeux Noèl
Paradise Now
Sophie Scholl - The Final Days
Tsotsi

ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP
The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
Cinderella Man
Star Wars: Episode III Revenge Of The Sith (My pick) (Likely to win)

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SCORE)
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener (My pick)
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Munich (Likely to win)
Pride & Prejudice

ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES
(ORIGINAL SONG)
"In The Deep" - Crash (My pick)
"It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" - Hustle & Flow
"Travelin' Thru" - Transamerica

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
King Kong (My pick) (Likely to win)
Memoirs Of A Geisha
War Of The Worlds

ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
King Kong (Likely to win)
Memoirs Of A Geisha
Walk The Line
War Of The Worlds (My pick)

ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch And The Wardrobe
King Kong (My pick) (Likely to win)
War Of The Worlds

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Badgered
The Moon And The Son: An Imagined Conversation
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations Of Jasper Morello
9
One Man Band

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Ausreisser (The Runaway)
Cashback
The Last Farm
Our Time Is Up
Six Shooter

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Darwin's Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys In The Room
March Of The Penguins (My pick) (Likely to win)
Murderball
Street Fight

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Death Of Kevin Carter: Casualty Of The Bang Bang Club
God Sleeps In Rwanda
The Mushroom Club
A Note Of Triumph: The Golden Age Of Norman Corwin